Financial products have increasingly emphasized the value of diversification. Modern Portfolio Theory has demonstrated that over time a diversified portfolio, by reducing the incidence of major drawdowns, can generate high cumulative returns with reduced volatility (a commonly-used measure of risk), as compared to conventional portfolios consisting of stocks and bonds. “Non-traditional” investments are incorporated into an investment strategy because they are likely to demonstrate a significant degree of performance non-correlation to a “base portfolio,” typically the general equity and/or debt markets. By combining non-traditional and traditional portfolio components, an “efficient frontier” of investment performance can be developed in which the addition of the non-traditional component increases returns while also reducing volatility up to the point of the desired level of portfolio efficiency (risk/reward ratio) and maximum non-traditional exposure.
One of the difficulties in implementing the diversification strategy of Modern Portfolio Theory has been to identify a reliably non-correlated and positively performing non-traditional investment instrument or class. Diversifying into a non-traditional investment can reduce volatility but not ultimately benefit a portfolio if the non-traditional investment is not profitable. In addition, many non-traditional investments have not, in fact, proved to be non-correlated with the broader markets, especially during periods of market stress (when the risk control benefits of diversification are potentially of the most importance).
Modern Portfolio Theory was developed in the 1950s. In the early 1960s, published financial portfolio research demonstrated that managed futures might serve as a non-traditional “asset class” for purposes of diversifying a traditional portfolio in a manner consistent with the tenets of such Theory. Since that time, while futures/commodities have been increasingly accepted as a means of diversifying traditional portfolios, the dominant approach to incorporating futures into a portfolio has focused on the use of managed futures—futures accounts actively managed by professional “Commodity Trading Advisors” and “Commodity Pool Operators.” The futures markets provide efficient and leveraged access to a wide range of potentially non-correlated assets. However, the performance of managed futures products has been unreliable. Whether managed on a discretionary basis or pursuant to computer models, actively managed futures strategies have demonstrated significant periods of under-performance. Furthermore, even when a managed futures investment is successful, it is impossible to predict with any confidence what its likely near- to mid-term performance will be. This uncertainty means that it is impossible to know whether any given non-traditional investment will be (1) profitable and/or (2) non-correlated with an investor's base portfolio.
A related impediment to the efficient implementation of Modern Portfolio Theory investment products through the use of non-traditional investments is that non-traditional investment portfolio managers typically regard both their strategies and their market positions as proprietary and confidential. Uncertainty of performance is combined with uncertainty as to holdings and methods of strategy implementation. These uncertainties have caused many institutions (especially those which believe that their fiduciary obligations to their investors or beneficiaries require that they have access to position data) to avoid non-traditional investments. The “entry barrier” of not providing trade transparency is heightened because most actively managed non-traditional strategies are subject to a non-quantifiable “risk of ruin”—the possibility of sudden and dramatic losses of a large percentage of an overall portfolio. In today's market environment, this is a particularly topical concern due to the massive and wholly unexpected losses suffered by a number of non-traditional, “hedge funds” in 1998, many of which had previously exhibited excellent risk/reward characteristics. “Risk of ruin” is not generally considered to be a component of traditional equity and debt investments, and can be best monitored by “real time” knowledge of strategies and positions.
Finally, non-traditional investment alternatives are frequently highly illiquid. Many non-traditional strategies have a statistically significant incremental likelihood of success the longer the time horizon of the strategy cycle. This is especially the case with relative value, quasi-arbitrage methodologies but is characteristic of many non-traditional approaches. As a result, many non-traditional investments require investment commitments of 12 months or longer, eliminating investors' ability to limit their losses or adjust portfolio exposure by terminating or reducing their investment.
The present invention provides a non-traditional investment instrument which eliminates the ill and trade non-transparency of many alternative non-traditional investments and which has produced consistently successful and non-correlated performance over 37 years of researched price histories.